Hurricane FABIAN

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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003
 
ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT VISIBLE AT THIS TIME ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...MICROWAVE DATA STILL SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A LARGE AND
WELL-DEFINED EYE. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE THAT INDICATED THAT THE EYE WAS LARGE AND ELONGATED. THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 951 BUT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 118
KNOTS.  THIS DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS AT THIS
TIME. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEN SHOULD BEGIN
THEREAFTER...AS THE SHEAR INCREASES ANDTHE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS
COOL WATERS. FABIAN SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48
HOURS.

FABIAN IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. FABIAN INNER
CORE IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY CLOSE TO BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...UNFORTUNATELY...THE PROJECTED TRACK BRINGS THE EAST EYEWALL
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE ISLAND. FABIAN IS READY TO
RECURVE AND IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS...IT WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  

BERMUDA IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING STRONG WINDS AND THE WEATHER SHOULD
GRADUALLY WORSEN. BERMUDA OFFICIALS AND RESIDENTS HAVE IMPLEMENTED 
THEIR HURRICANE PLANS AND AT THIS TIME...WE CAN ONLY HOPE FOR THE
BEST.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/1500Z 30.8N  65.4W   105 KT
 12HR VT     06/0000Z 33.0N  65.0W   105 KT
 24HR VT     06/1200Z 35.5N  63.0W   100 KT
 36HR VT     07/0000Z 37.5N  60.0W    90 KT
 48HR VT     07/1200Z 40.0N  56.0W    80 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     08/1200Z 46.0N  46.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     09/1200Z 54.0N  31.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     10/1200Z 60.0N  10.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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