Hurricane FABIAN
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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003
AN AIR FORCE RECON MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 235/32 KTS ON THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BERMUDA. SO THINGS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THERE
FAIRLY QUICKLY.
ALL GUIDANCE REMAINS CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND THEN
BEGINS TO DIVERGE AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. A GRADUAL
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE HURRICANE
BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOL WATERS.
FABIAN SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS OVER THE COLD WATERS OF
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
INTO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM AND THE 96 HOUR INTENSITY
REFLECTS THIS.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0900Z 35.6N 63.3W 100 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 37.5N 61.0W 95 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 40.1N 57.2W 90 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 42.5N 52.7W 80 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 08/0600Z 44.8N 48.6W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 09/0600Z 51.0N 40.9W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 10/0600Z 58.2N 33.5W 80 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 11/0600Z 62.1N 31.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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