Hurricane FABIAN
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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FABIAN IS A WELL ORGANIZED HURRICANE
WITH A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION AND GOOD OUTFLOW.
CONSERVATIVELY...THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 95 KNOTS...BUT WINDS
COULD BE HIGHER. FABIAN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER COOL WATERS AND
IT SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 TO 48 HOURS.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 209
KNOTS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED IN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...AS FABIAN BECOMES A FULL FLEDGED
EXTRATROPICAL STORM...IT MAY SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN TO MEANDER AS AN
OCCLUDED CYCLONE. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST
WHICH WAS BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM NCEP/HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER.
BUOY 44630 LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EYEWALL HAS REPORTED A PRESSURE
DROP FROM 987.0 MB AT 18Z TO 968.7 MB AT 19Z. BASE ON THIS DATA THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF FABIAN HAS BEEN ESTIMATED AT 960 MB.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/2100Z 37.5N 59.3W 95 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 40.0N 56.0W 95 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 44.0N 50.5W 80 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 47.5N 45.5W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 08/1800Z 51.5N 40.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 09/1800Z 59.0N 30.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 10/1800Z 60.0N 35.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 11/1800Z 58.5N 32.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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