Tropical Storm ISABEL

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TROPICAL STORM ISABEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM
ISABEL. SINCE THE SHEAR IS LOW AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE A
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. 

ISABEL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS. 

A REGULAR ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 1500Z TODAY.  
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/1300Z 14.0N  34.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 14.0N  35.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 14.0N  37.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 14.5N  40.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 15.0N  42.5W    65 KT
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 15.5N  46.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     10/0600Z 16.5N  50.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     11/0600Z 17.5N  54.5W    65 KT
 
 
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