Tropical Storm CARLOS

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TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU JUN 26 2003
 
CARLOS IS STRENGTHENING. THIS IS BASED ON DATA FROM THE SHIP V7AM9
WHICH REPORTED 40 KNOTS AND A PRESSURE OF 1005.8 MB NEAR THE CENTER
AND ON SATELLITE IMAGES THAT SHOW A WELL DEFINED CURVED BAND
WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  UNANIMOUSLY...DVORAK
T-NUMBERS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE
SHEAR IS DECREASING AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER OF CARLOS BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
LAND.
 
RADAR FROM PUERTO ANGEL...MEXICO AND VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
CARLOS HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE DAY WHILE
REORGANIZING BUT...THE OVERALL SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE
NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORCE CARLOS TO MOVE ON A
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THIS WOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF CARLOS VERY
NEAR...OR ON...THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 3 OR 4
DAYS. IF THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE...WEAKENING MAY NOT OCCUR AS
INDICATED. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE CENTER MOVES FURTHER
INLAND...A FASTER WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.
 
DUE TO THE NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE...THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO SALINA CRUZ AND DISCONTINUED
WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO BY THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/2100Z 15.1N  97.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     27/0600Z 15.7N  97.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     27/1800Z 16.5N  98.8W    60 KT
 36HR VT     28/0600Z 17.0N 100.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     28/1800Z 17.5N 101.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     29/1800Z 18.0N 103.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     30/1800Z 19.0N 105.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     01/1800Z 19.5N 108.0W    50 KT
 
 
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