Tropical Storm DOLORES

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TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN JUL 06 2003

THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER BECAME EXPOSED A FEW HOURS AGO...AS DOLORES
CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. DEEP
CONVECTION ALSO DIMINISHED...HOWEVER THIS IS PROBABLY A DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 KT TO
45 KT. THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO BE OF MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY....ALTHOUGH THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  THERE IS A RATHER
STABLE AIR MASS TO THE NORTH OF DOLORES AS INDICATED BY THE
PRESENCE OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS
DECREASING SHEAR BUT CALLS FOR NEGLIGIBLE STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR BEING THE
PRESENCE OF THE STABLE AIR MASS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
MAINTAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR A DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY
WEAKENING OVER SUB-25 DEG C SSTS.

AS THE EXPOSED CENTER BECAME CLEAR...IT WAS NECESSARY TO ADJUST THE
TRACK EVEN FARTHER TO THE NORTH.  INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 310/8. 
DOLORES IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.  BASED ON THE MORE NORTHWARD AND SLOWER INITIAL
MOTION...THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS...EXCEPT FOR THE BETA ADVECTION AND
BAROTROPIC MODELS WHICH ARE FASTER AND TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE
NORTH LATER IN THE PERIOD.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0300Z 16.3N 118.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     07/1200Z 16.8N 120.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     08/0000Z 17.4N 121.7W    35 KT
 36HR VT     08/1200Z 18.0N 123.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     09/0000Z 18.5N 125.3W    30 KT
 72HR VT     10/0000Z 19.5N 129.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     11/0000Z 20.5N 132.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     12/0000Z 21.5N 136.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
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