Tropical Storm MARTY
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TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2003
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/04. THE 12Z GFS RUN SHOWS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST WEST OF CALIFORNIA REPLACED BY A
CUT-OFF LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM 28N 140W OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE STORM ON A MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWARD TRACK. THE GLOBAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON A
TRACK MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH OR CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN
48 TO 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BURSTING COLD CDO AND IMPROVING BANDING
AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC ARE 65/65/55 KNOTS.
HOWEVER A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 15Z SHOWED NO WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 45
KNOTS. THE ADVISORY INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS
AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS AND REACH 80
KNOTS IN 36 HOURS WITH LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/2100Z 18.6N 108.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 19.3N 109.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 20.5N 110.3W 75 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 22.1N 111.3W 80 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 24.2N 112.3W 80 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 29.0N 114.5W 60 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 24/1800Z 32.0N 114.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 25/1800Z 33.5N 113.0W 25 KT...INLAND
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