Hurricane FABIAN
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HURRICANE FABIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102003
1500Z SAT AUG 30 2003
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 48.6W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 48.6W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 48.0W
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.5N 50.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 18.5N 53.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 19.0N 55.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 19.5N 57.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 22.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 25.0N 67.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 48.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z
FORECASTER AVILA
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