Hurricane FABIAN
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HURRICANE FABIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102003
1500Z SUN AUG 31 2003
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 53.2W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 100SE 100SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 53.2W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 52.5W
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 18.5N 55.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 19.3N 57.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 20.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 21.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 23.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 26.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 29.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 53.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z
FORECASTER AVILA
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