Hurricane ALEX
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HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/15. THE GLOBAL TRACK GUIDANCE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT MOVING ALEX EAST-NORTHEAST TO
EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 120 HOURS TO THE NORTH OF THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
GUIDANCE AND IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
A RECENT RECONNAISSANCE MISSION REPORTED 973 MB AND A MAXIMUM FLIGHT
LEVEL WIND OF 87 KNOTS ABOUT 25 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL MAXIMUM 1-MIN WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 80 KNOTS BASED ON
THIS DATA. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ALEX WILL ENCOUNTER 21 DEG
SSTS IN 48 HOURS ALONG WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND THIS IS
THE BASIS FOR FORECASTING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 48 HOURS.
THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS HOLD ON TO HURRICANE FORCE THROUGH 120
HOURS WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS DISSIPATION BY 96 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0300Z 36.5N 72.8W 80 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 37.4N 70.2W 75 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 38.6N 66.3W 75 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 40.7N 61.1W 70 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 43.3N 54.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 07/0000Z 45.0N 38.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 08/0000Z 44.0N 20.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/0000Z 48.0N 10.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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