Tropical Storm AGATHA
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI MAY 21 2004
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED SOME DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER THIS EVENING. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE
1.5/2.0/2.0 FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC AND THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09. THE TRACK MODELS SHOW THE
DEPRESSION TO BE EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING CURRENT AND THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FOR A RATHER SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
FOR 5 DAYS.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY AGGRESSIVE EVEN THOUGH THERE IS
LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. THE SHIP MODEL BRINGS THE
WIND SPEED TO MAXIMUM VALUE OF 42 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE
THE GFDL SHOWS NO CHANGE FOR 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST IS
A MODEST INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0300Z 14.7N 108.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 15.4N 109.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 16.0N 110.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 16.6N 111.2W 35 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 17.1N 112.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 18.0N 113.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 26/0000Z 18.0N 113.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 27/0000Z 18.0N 113.0W 25 KT
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