Tropical Storm AGATHA
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON MAY 24 2004
THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AGATHA AT THE PRESENT
TIME. THIS SYSTEM MAY GENERATE SOME INTERMITTENT AND ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION BUT IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN 25 DEG C. DEGENERATION TO A NON-CONVECTIVE
REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY LATER TODAY.
FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY REQUIRES A RELOCATION OF AGATHA EAST OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
ESTIMATED TO BE 330/3. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIVERSITY IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE AS STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT WELL DEFINED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN CALLING FOR LITTLE
OVERALL MOTION OF THE DISSIPATING SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 19.1N 111.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 19.5N 111.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 25/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 26/0000Z 20.0N 112.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 26/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 27/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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