Hurricane DARBY
ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU JUL 29 2004
DARBY IS COMING APART RAPIDLY. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS BECOMING
LESS WELL DEFINED AND APPEARS TO BE DECOUPLING FROM THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. CURRENT DVORAK T/CI NUMBERS ARE A CONSENSUS
4.0/5.0...AND IN ACCORD WITH RECENT STUDIES...THE INTENSITY IS SET
TO AN AVERAGE OF THE T AND CI NUMBERS...OR 75 KT. COLD WATER AND
INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR LIE AHEAD FOR DARBY...SO CONTINUED
WEAKENING IS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DECAY IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
285/11...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION. EXCEPT FOR
THE NOGAPS AND ITS DEPENDENT GFNI...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WITH AN APPARENT DECOUPLING UNDERWAY...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0300Z 18.3N 129.8W 75 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 18.8N 131.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 19.2N 134.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 31/1200Z 19.5N 136.3W 40 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 19.5N 139.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 19.5N 144.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 03/0000Z 19.5N 149.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
NNNN