Tropical Depression NINE-E
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU AUG 26 2004
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER MICROWAVE PASSES
DEPICT TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E AS A RATHER LARGE FULLY EXPOSED
SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT
FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM AFWA. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KT.
CURRENT MOTION IS 270/9. A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE A WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS AND AGREES
WITH THE GFS...NOGAPS AND THE SHALLOW LAYER BETA ADVECTION MODEL.
UPPER SOUTHWESTERLIES AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CONTINUE TO HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS THE SAME AS BEFORE WITH DISSIPATION IN 12 HOURS OR
LESS...THEN CONTINUING WESTWARD AS A REMNANT LOW OVER THE REMAINING
PERIOD.
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0900Z 20.0N 130.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 20.0N 131.8W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 27/0600Z 20.0N 133.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 27/1800Z 20.0N 136.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 28/0600Z 20.0N 138.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 29/0600Z 20.0N 142.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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