Hurricane IVAN

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HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
0900Z SUN SEP 05 2004
 
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IVAN.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.7N  44.3W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  18 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.7N  44.3W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.5N  43.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 10.3N  47.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 11.3N  50.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 12.2N  54.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 13.1N  57.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 14.5N  63.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 17.0N  69.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 20.5N  73.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.7N  44.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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