Hurricane IVAN
ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
2100Z SUN SEP 05 2004
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR BARBADOS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 47.7W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 47.7W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 46.8W
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 11.0N 50.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 11.9N 54.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.8N 57.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 13.6N 61.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 18.5N 71.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 21.5N 76.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.4N 47.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
NNNN