Hurricane IVAN

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HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
0900Z MON SEP 06 2004
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS AND ST. LUCIA AND A
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE THE ISLAND OF
MARTINIQUE LATER THIS MORNING.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IVAN.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N  51.6W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  20 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  951 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N  51.6W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N  50.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 11.6N  54.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.3N  57.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 13.2N  60.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 75NE  65SE  65SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 14.3N  63.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 130SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.8N  69.1W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 130SW 160NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 19.5N  73.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 22.5N  77.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N  51.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z
 
FORECASTER HOLWEG/STEWART
 
 
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