Hurricane IVAN

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HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
1500Z TUE SEP 07 2004
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...ST.
VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...MARTINIQUE...
AND ST. LUCIA.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z..THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BONAIRE..CURACAO AND ARUBA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N  60.2W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  963 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  15SE  15SW  60NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  30SE  30SW  90NW.
34 KT.......140NE  60SE  60SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 140SE 140SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N  60.2W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N  59.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 12.3N  62.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  25SE  25SW  60NW.
50 KT... 90NE  45SE  45SW  90NW.
34 KT...140NE  70SE  70SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.0N  65.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
50 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE  80SE  80SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.0N  68.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE  90SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.0N  71.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE  90SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.5N  76.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 19.5N  80.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 22.0N  83.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N  60.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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