Hurricane IVAN

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HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
2100Z TUE SEP 07 2004
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR  ST. VINCENT...THE
GRENADINES...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR TOBAGO HAS BEEN
DONGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...MARTINIQUE...
AND ST. LUCIA...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR
BONAIRE...CURACAO AND ARUBA.
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z..THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  62.0W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  956 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  15SE  15SW  60NW.
50 KT.......100NE  75SE  25SW 100NW.
34 KT.......140NE 125SE  30SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 140SE 140SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  62.0W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N  61.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 12.5N  64.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  15SE   0SW  45NW.
50 KT...100NE  75SE  25SW 100NW.
34 KT...140NE 125SE  30SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.5N  67.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  15SE  15SW  45NW.
50 KT...100NE  75SE  25SW 100NW.
34 KT...140NE 125SE  30SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.7N  70.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  45SE  15SW  45NW.
50 KT...100NE  75SE  25SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE  50SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.0N  73.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...100NE  70SE  25SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.0N  77.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  25SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE  75SW 125NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 20.0N  81.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 23.0N  84.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N  62.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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