Hurricane IVAN

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HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
1500Z SUN SEP 12 2004
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY
TORTUGAS.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
WARNINGS FOR JAMAICA.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N  81.5W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  919 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE  60SE  45SW  55NW.
50 KT.......100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N  81.5W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  81.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 19.8N  82.4W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 80NE  60SE  45SW  55NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.3N  83.5W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 80NE  60SE  45SW  55NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.9N  84.4W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 24.7N  85.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 28.3N  85.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 32.5N  84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 37.0N  81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N  81.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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