Tropical Storm ISIS
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122004
2100Z SAT SEP 11 2004
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 120.8W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 120.8W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 120.4W
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.5N 122.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.5N 124.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.5N 126.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.5N 127.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.5N 131.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 17.5N 132.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 17.5N 134.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 120.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
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