Hurricane FRANCES
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HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.9 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST TUE AUG 31 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
19.3N 55.3W 52 X X X 52 TNCM 181N 631W X X 2 12 14
20.1N 57.4W 15 22 X X 37 TISX 177N 648W X X X 10 10
20.5N 59.7W X 16 13 X 29 TIST 183N 650W X X X 11 11
TFFF 146N 610W X X X 2 2 TJPS 180N 666W X X X 6 6
TDPR 153N 614W X X 1 3 4 TJSJ 184N 661W X X X 9 9
80400 157N 636W X X X 4 4 ST CROIX VI X X X 10 10
TFFR 163N 615W X X 2 6 8 ST THOMAS VI X X X 11 11
TAPA 171N 618W X X 3 9 12 SAN JUAN PR X X X 9 9
TKPK 173N 627W X X 2 10 12 PONCE PR X X X 6 6
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN
C FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON
D FROM 8AM MON TO 8AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
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