Hurricane KENNETH
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HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS
DEPICT A CLEAR 25 NM EYE...AND AN EXPANSION OF THE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS. THE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THE SIZE EXPANSION OVER THE TWO
QUADRANTS. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AS WELL AS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER COOLER WATERS AND WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR MASS...AS
THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/6. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE
THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...KENNETH IS FORECAST TO SLOW IN
FORWARD MOTION AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS WHICH SUGGESTS AN EARLIER...ABRUPT TURN TO
THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND CLOSER TO THE NOGAPS AND THE UKMET.
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/0300Z 14.2N 128.2W 105 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 14.6N 129.1W 100 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 15.1N 130.0W 90 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 15.6N 130.8W 80 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 16.1N 131.5W 70 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 17.0N 133.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 18.0N 135.5W 50 KT
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