Hurricane KENNETH
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HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2005
UPPER LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE
UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER HURRICANE JOVA IS CREATING SOME NORTHERLY
SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENNETH. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
ERODED THE EYEWALL...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE COLLAPSED OVER THE NORTH
QUADRANT. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND SO
HAS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE...WHICH IS SET AT 110 KT. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE NORTHERLY
SHEAR CONTINUES AND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER MAY HAVE MEANDERED A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY STATIONARY. KENNETH IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWING THE FLOW
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WHICH APPEARS TO BE DUE TO
SOME INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM MAX TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE
RIGHT...AND IS A BLEND OF THE UKMET...NOGAPS AND THE GFDN.
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0900Z 13.7N 130.5W 110 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 13.7N 130.8W 100 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 13.8N 131.2W 90 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 14.0N 131.7W 80 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 14.3N 132.5W 70 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 15.5N 134.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 17.0N 135.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 24/0600Z 18.0N 137.5W 45 KT
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