Hurricane KENNETH
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HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2005
A VERY SMALL EYE CAN BE SEEN ON SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY. THE
NORTHERLY SHEAR...RESULTED BY THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER HURRICANE
JOVA TO THE WEST...CONTINUES TO IMPEDE THE CIRCULATION OF KENNETH.
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ARE CONTINUING TO LOWER...DATA T-NUMBERS
ARE 5.5...102 KT FROM TAFB AND 5.0...90 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 100 KT AT ADVISORY TIME. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE NORTHERLY
SHEAR CONTINUES TO HAMPER ANY FURTHER REDEVELOPMENT.
THE CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...HOWEVER THE LAST FEW IMAGES HAVE INDICATED NEARLY
STATIONARY MOTION. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE DIVERGENT FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS...WHETHER TO TRACK KENNETH IN A SMALL LOOP OR MOVE
TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THE CYCLONE SLOWLY TO
THE WEST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THEREAFTER.
KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FLOW ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...AND CLOSE TO CONU.
FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/1500Z 13.4N 130.5W 100 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 13.4N 130.9W 90 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 13.6N 131.3W 80 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 13.9N 131.8W 70 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 14.3N 132.3W 65 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 15.9N 133.9W 60 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 17.0N 135.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 18.0N 136.5W 40 KT
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