Hurricane EMILY

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HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052005
0300Z SUN JUL 17 2005
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND
THE ISLAS MUJERES.  ADDITIONALLY... THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED WESTWARD AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE ON THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA... ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.... AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL
AND THE ISLAS MUJERES.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  80.3W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  930 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  30SE  25SW  50NW.
34 KT.......130NE  80SE  50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 215SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  80.3W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  79.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.5N  82.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  30SE  25SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE  80SE  50SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.8N  85.8W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
50 KT...100NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE  60SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.0N  89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  15SE  10SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  25SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE  70SE  50SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.2N  92.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.0N  97.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE  60SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 25.0N 101.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 25.0N 105.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N  80.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
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