Hurricane EMILY

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

...OUTER EYEWALL OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY MOVING ONTO THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.
 
AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS DISCONTINUED NORTH
OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY.
 
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  97.2 WEST OR ABOUT   80 MILES...
125 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MATAMOROS MEXICO AND ABOUT   85
MILES... 135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
 
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  8 MPH...13 KM/HR.  A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TODAY.  THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING
THE CENTER OF EMILY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
SAN FERNANDO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THIS MAKES EMILY A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
LANDFALL...AND THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT EMILY COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.  WINDS ARE GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN
SQUALLS OVER SOUTH TEXAS.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS  943 MB...27.85 INCHES.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
 
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO
10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...AND
OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
 
REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...24.7 N... 97.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 943 MB.
 
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 6 AM CDT AND 8 AM CDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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