Tropical Storm CHRIS

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TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 02 2006
 
CHRIS HAS TURNED WESTWARD THIS EVENING...AS INDICATED BY A SERIES OF
AIRCRAFT RECON FIXES ENDING AROUND 00Z...WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM
SAN JUAN...AND GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY.  WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...THE RADAR IMAGERY EVEN SUGGESTS A MOTION A LITTLE SOUTH OF
DUE WEST.  FOR NOW I WILL CONSIDER THAT SOUTHWARD COMPONENT AS A
WOBBLE AND ESTIMATE THE INITIAL MOTION TO BE WESTWARD OR 270
DEGREES AT 7 KT.  THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODEL TO FORECAST A WESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE GFDL...AND ITS SOUTHERN
TRACK SOLUTION NO LONGER SEEMS SO MUCH OF AN OUTLIER. 
ALSO...OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE HAS SHIFTED
SOUTH...SEEMINGLY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD...BUT OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE REMAINING MODELS...NOT AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE GFDL.

CHRIS HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY PRODUCING VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER THIS EVENING...WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -80C.
WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM SAN JUAN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS
DEPICTED A CIRCULATION NEAR 25000 FT IN ALTITUDE.  THE LAST FIX FROM
THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT AROUND 00Z LOCATED THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER A LITTLE WEST OF THAT FEATURE...WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1007 MB.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. 
IN ACCORDANCE WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE NEW
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE IT POSSIBLY INTERACTS WITH THE LANDMASSES OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES.  FOLLOWING THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...CHRIS
WOULD PASS OVER LAND LONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEFORE EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...IF IT LASTS THAT
LONG.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z 19.8N  64.9W    50 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 20.1N  66.2W    50 KT
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 20.4N  68.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 20.8N  70.2W    60 KT
 48HR VT     05/0000Z 21.2N  72.5W    60 KT
 72HR VT     06/0000Z 22.0N  77.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     07/0000Z 22.5N  82.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     08/0000Z 23.5N  87.5W    60 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
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