Tropical Storm HELENE

ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006               
0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 153N  408W 34 80   6(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
 12 153N  408W 50  9   5(14)   X(14)   X(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 12 153N  408W 64  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 164N  432W 34  6  58(64)  10(74)   2(76)   1(77)   X(77)   X(77)
 24 164N  432W 50  X  15(15)  11(26)   1(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 24 164N  432W 64  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 36 175N  452W 34  X  18(18)  40(58)  10(68)   4(72)   1(73)   X(73)
 36 175N  452W 50  X   1( 1)  21(22)   9(31)   3(34)   1(35)   X(35)
 36 175N  452W 64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
 48 185N  467W 34  X   3( 3)  29(32)  22(54)  12(66)   2(68)   X(68)
 48 185N  467W 50  X   X( X)   7( 7)  16(23)   8(31)   2(33)   1(34)
 48 185N  467W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   5(13)   1(14)   1(15)
 
 
 72 203N  494W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)  29(47)  10(57)   2(59)
 72 203N  494W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  17(20)   6(26)   2(28)
 72 203N  494W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)   1(15)
 
 
 96 224N  519W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)  19(39)   7(46)
 96 224N  519W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  11(17)   4(21)
 96 224N  519W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)
 
 
120 245N  540W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  18(23)  10(33)
120 245N  540W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   6(15)
120 245N  540W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     50      60      70      80      90      90
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
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