Hurricane HELENE

ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  23                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006               
0300 UTC MON SEP 18 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR.                                      
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  10(19)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 223N  502W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 223N  502W 50 90   5(95)   1(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
 12 223N  502W 64 68  12(80)   1(81)   1(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
 
 24 230N  515W 34 73  21(94)   3(97)   1(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 24 230N  515W 50 17  52(69)   9(78)   3(81)   1(82)   X(82)   X(82)
 24 230N  515W 64  6  42(48)  10(58)   1(59)   2(61)   X(61)   X(61)
 
 36 233N  531W 34  8  51(59)  23(82)   6(88)   3(91)   1(92)   X(92)
 36 233N  531W 50  1  22(23)  31(54)   9(63)   5(68)   1(69)   X(69)
 36 233N  531W 64  X  10(10)  26(36)   7(43)   3(46)   1(47)   X(47)
 
 48 236N  548W 34  2  13(15)  37(52)  20(72)  10(82)   2(84)   X(84)
 48 236N  548W 50  X   3( 3)  21(24)  20(44)  10(54)   3(57)   1(58)
 48 236N  548W 64  X   1( 1)  10(11)  15(26)   8(34)   2(36)   X(36)
 
 
 72 250N  580W 34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  18(23)  33(56)  10(66)   2(68)
 72 250N  580W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  23(30)   7(37)   1(38)
 72 250N  580W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   5(21)   1(22)
 
 
 96 275N  595W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  24(28)  19(47)   7(54)
 96 275N  595W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  12(22)   3(25)
 96 275N  595W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   2(14)
 
 
120 295N  615W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  21(30)  10(40)
120 295N  615W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   7(18)
120 295N  615W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND    105    110     110     110     100      95      90
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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