Hurricane HELENE

ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  37                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006               
1500 UTC THU SEP 21 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 314N  563W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 314N  563W 50 84   7(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
 12 314N  563W 64 41  11(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
 
 24 341N  545W 34 24  66(90)   5(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 24 341N  545W 50  X  55(55)  10(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
 24 341N  545W 64  X  24(24)   8(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
 36 368N  512W 34  X  13(13)  63(76)   9(85)   1(86)   X(86)   X(86)
 36 368N  512W 50  X   X( X)  39(39)   9(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 36 368N  512W 64  X   X( X)  14(14)   6(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
 48 396N  466W 34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  51(59)  11(70)   X(70)   X(70)
 48 396N  466W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)   7(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 48 396N  466W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
 
 72 452N  364W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  40(40)  10(50)   1(51)
 72 452N  364W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   4(18)   1(19)
 72 452N  364W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
 
 
 96 495N  285W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  28(32)   8(40)
 96 495N  285W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   4(17)
 96 495N  285W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
 
120 540N  200W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  16(23)
120 540N  200W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
120 540N  200W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     70     70      70      65      60      60      55
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
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