Hurricane ISAAC

ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12                 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006               
1500 UTC SAT SEP 30 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  26(26)   X(26)   X(26)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  43(44)   X(44)   X(44)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   X(15)   X(15)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  35(38)   X(38)   X(38)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)
ILE ST PIERRE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)   X(21)   X(21)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   X(13)   X(13)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   X(12)   X(12)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   X(15)   X(15)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)  14(34)   X(34)   X(34)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   X(12)   X(12)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  3   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 316N  596W 34 97   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 316N  596W 50 81   8(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
 12 316N  596W 64 51  11(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
 
 24 334N  605W 34 32  57(89)   5(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 24 334N  605W 50  4  57(61)  11(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
 24 334N  605W 64  1  35(36)   9(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
 
 36 368N  605W 34  1  15(16)  59(75)   8(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 36 368N  605W 50  X   1( 1)  40(41)   8(49)   1(50)   X(50)   X(50)
 36 368N  605W 64  X   X( X)  18(18)   4(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
 48 415N  590W 34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  47(53)  10(63)   X(63)   X(63)
 48 415N  590W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)   6(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 48 415N  590W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
 
 72 500N  500W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  31(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 72 500N  500W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 72 500N  500W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     70     75      70      60      50       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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