Tropical Storm BUD
ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006
WITH THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF COLD SSTS...STABLE AIR AND MODERATE
SOUTHERLY SHEAR...BUD IS LIGHT ON DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DROP QUICKLY WITH CURRENT VALUES OF 45-55 KT
AND DATA T-NUMBERS OF 30-35 KT. INTENSITY IS ANALYZED AT 40 KT.
TROPICAL STORM BUD'S TRACK IS NOW CLOSER TO A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY
AT ABOUT 12 KT.
BUD SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC HIGH. THE TRACK FORECAST
FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE GFSI AND GFDI MODELS WHICH SHOW A GOOD
REPRESENTATION OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE. BUD SHOULD CONTINUE TO
UNWIND AND LIKELY WILL DROP BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE SHORTLY. A
REMNANT NON-CONVECTIVE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FIVE
DAYS OR LESS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS AND GFDI.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/2100Z 19.8N 128.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 20.2N 130.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 20.4N 133.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 16/0600Z 20.5N 135.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 16/1800Z 20.6N 138.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 17/1800Z 20.5N 144.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 18/1800Z 20.0N 150.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 19/1800Z 20.0N 155.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
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