Hurricane CARLOTTA
ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
0900 UTC FRI JUL 14 2006
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA CLARION 34 73 19(92) X(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
ISLA CLARION 50 29 29(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)
ISLA CLARION 64 13 17(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 182N 1142W 34 90 6(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
12 182N 1142W 50 58 12(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71)
12 182N 1142W 64 37 7(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
24 184N 1161W 34 7 58(65) 8(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
24 184N 1161W 50 1 26(27) 7(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
24 184N 1161W 64 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
36 186N 1180W 34 1 14(15) 28(43) 7(50) 1(51) 1(52) X(52)
36 186N 1180W 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)
36 186N 1180W 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
48 188N 1200W 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 14(26) 6(32) X(32) X(32)
48 188N 1200W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
48 188N 1200W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
72 190N 1230W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 2(15) 1(16)
72 190N 1230W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
72 190N 1230W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
96 195N 1255W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)
96 195N 1255W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
96 195N 1255W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
120 200N 1280W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
120 200N 1280W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
120 200N 1280W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70 60 50 45 35 25 20
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
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