Tropical Depression FABIO
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006
800 PM PDT WED AUG 02 2006
THE CENTER OF FABIO IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED TONIGHT WITH ONLY A BURST
OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT FABIO IS NOW A DEPRESSION AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 30 KT. ANY CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER
IS EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY DUE TO PLENTY OF DRY STABLE AIR AND
EASTERLY WIND SHEAR. A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN IS ANTICIPATED AND SHOULD
BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED IN A COUPLE DAYS AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY SHEAR
HITS THE CYCLONE. IF NEW BURSTS OF CONVECTION DO NOT OCCUR...THE
SYSTEM MAY BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE.
THE LAST SIX HOURS OF MOTION HAVE FABIO RIGHT ON TRACK... 275
DEGREES... AT A LITTLE FASTER RATE OF 15 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY FASTER THAN EARLIER TODAY SEEMINGLY DUE TO A RATHER
STRONG MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST ALSO IS FASTER AND CLOSE TO CONU...TAKING THE SYSTEM
SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0300Z 15.3N 134.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 15.5N 136.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 15.6N 140.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 15.8N 143.4W 30 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 16.0N 146.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 06/0000Z 16.0N 153.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
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