Hurricane HECTOR

ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006               
0300 UTC SAT AUG 19 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR.                                       
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 176N 1296W 34 96   3(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 176N 1296W 50 72  10(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
 12 176N 1296W 64 38  11(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 
 24 184N 1314W 34 30  46(76)   5(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
 24 184N 1314W 50  2  32(34)   6(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 24 184N 1314W 64  X  14(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
 36 193N 1329W 34  3  27(30)  19(49)   4(53)   X(53)   1(54)   X(54)
 36 193N 1329W 50  X   3( 3)  10(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 36 193N 1329W 64  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 48 200N 1342W 34  1   7( 8)  14(22)   8(30)   3(33)   1(34)   X(34)
 48 200N 1342W 50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 48 200N 1342W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 210N 1365W 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   5(10)   2(12)   1(13)
 72 210N 1365W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 72 210N 1365W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 215N 1390W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 96 215N 1390W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 215N 1390W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 220N 1425W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
120 220N 1425W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 220N 1425W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     80     65      50      40      30      25      25
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA                                           
                                                                    
                                                                    
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