Hurricane ILEANA
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HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006
200 AM PDT THU AUG 24 2006
HURRICANE ILEANA HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN...CURRENT INTENSITY IS NOW 95
KT. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE HAS EXPANDED AND
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED. 0312Z 85 GHZ SSM/I MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE FORMATION OF AN OUTER EYEWALL AS PART OF AN
POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. HOWEVER, WE DO NOT EXPECT
ELENA TO RE-INTENSIFY AS IT IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATER...AND ALL
INTENSITY AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MORE RAPID
WEAKENING THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
ILEANA'S FORWARD SPEED HAS DECREASED...INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED
AT 300/9. OUR TRACK FORECAST IS CONSISTENT, BUT SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTH AND SLOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE IN DEFERENCE TO A
CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL, UKMO, NOGAPS AND GFS MODELS AND THE FLORIDA
STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.
THE WIND RADII REMAIN THE SAME GIVEN THE LACK OF NEW OBSERVATIONS
AND THE FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0900Z 19.9N 114.2W 95 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 20.5N 115.3W 90 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 21.3N 116.6W 85 KT
36HR VT 25/1800Z 21.8N 117.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 26/0600Z 22.2N 118.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 27/0600Z 22.5N 120.1W 40 KT
96HR VT 28/0600Z 22.5N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 29/0600Z 22.5N 123.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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FORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA
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