Hurricane JOHN

ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2006

CORRECTED FOR INITIAL MOTION
 
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS.  AT 8 PM
PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE
HURRICANE WATCH FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS.
 
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS.  A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO SAN
BLAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
 
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SAN BLAS TO
MAZATLAN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA
FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.
 
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR ISLAS MARIAS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 104.5W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 140SE 120SW 140NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 104.5W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 104.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 19.3N 105.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  75SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.3N 107.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  75SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.4N 108.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  75SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.0N 109.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 23.8N 112.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 24.0N 116.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 24.0N 121.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 104.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
 
 
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