Hurricane JOHN

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HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006

...JOHN PASSING NEAR LA PAZ...STILL A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM MULEGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND FROM
PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA
EUGENIA...AND FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO
GUAYMAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA
CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF JOHN.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST OR VERY NEAR LA
PAZ MEXICO.
 
JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF JOHN SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  JOHN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS JOHN INTERACTS WITH LAND
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM
LA CRUZ TO GUAYMAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
 
REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...24.2 N...110.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB
 
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