Tropical Storm JOHN
ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
2100 UTC MON AUG 28 2006
...NAME OF JOHN ADDED ABOVE...
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 18(28) 2(30)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) 2(27)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 2(18)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18) X(18)
SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 3(28) X(28)
P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 31(42) 2(44) X(44)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 25(38) 2(40) X(40)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 20(34) 8(42) X(42) X(42)
L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10)
L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 15(34) 4(38) X(38) 1(39)
ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ACAPULCO 34 1 11(12) 15(27) 6(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34)
ACAPULCO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
P MALDONADO 34 5 16(21) 5(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
P ANGEL 34 13 5(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
HUATULCO 34 10 3(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 16(33) 1(34)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 6(29) 1(30)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 137N 979W 34 89 5(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
12 137N 979W 50 15 19(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
12 137N 979W 64 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
24 141N 997W 34 18 58(76) 10(86) 1(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88)
24 141N 997W 50 X 28(28) 13(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
24 141N 997W 64 X 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
36 150N 1016W 34 1 21(22) 46(68) 12(80) 3(83) X(83) X(83)
36 150N 1016W 50 X 2( 2) 25(27) 13(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42)
36 150N 1016W 64 X X( X) 10(10) 5(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
48 162N 1037W 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 36(58) 17(75) X(75) X(75)
48 162N 1037W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 13(37) X(37) X(37)
48 162N 1037W 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16)
72 195N 1085W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 43(45) 13(58) 1(59)
72 195N 1085W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 8(25) 1(26)
72 195N 1085W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12)
96 215N 1120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 24(33) 3(36)
96 215N 1120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12)
96 215N 1120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
120 225N 1140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 5(24)
120 225N 1140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
120 225N 1140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50 60 70 80 90 85 60
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA
NNNN
NHC on Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
NHC Blog: