Tropical Storm JOHN
ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
0900 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15(25) 3(28)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) 2(24)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 1(13)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 4(19) 1(20)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 2(30) 1(31)
P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 25(45) 2(47) X(47)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16) X(16)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 21(43) 1(44) X(44)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12)
MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 18(40) 6(46) X(46) X(46)
L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15)
L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 3( 4) 22(26) 11(37) 3(40) X(40) X(40)
ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ACAPULCO 34 1 13(14) 13(27) 3(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31)
ACAPULCO 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
P MALDONADO 34 3 10(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) 1(19) X(19)
P ANGEL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
HUATULCO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 16(32) 1(33)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 6(31) 1(32)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 142N 989W 34 91 5(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
12 142N 989W 50 55 16(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72)
12 142N 989W 64 37 14(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52)
24 148N 1005W 34 11 69(80) 10(90) X(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91)
24 148N 1005W 50 1 43(44) 15(59) 2(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
24 148N 1005W 64 1 23(24) 12(36) 1(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38)
36 157N 1024W 34 1 17(18) 52(70) 13(83) 2(85) X(85) X(85)
36 157N 1024W 50 X 3( 3) 35(38) 14(52) 3(55) X(55) X(55)
36 157N 1024W 64 X 1( 1) 18(19) 9(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30)
48 169N 1044W 34 X 1( 1) 23(24) 39(63) 15(78) 1(79) X(79)
48 169N 1044W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) 14(46) 1(47) X(47)
48 169N 1044W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) 1(25) X(25)
72 195N 1083W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 43(47) 11(58) 2(60)
72 195N 1083W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 7(27) X(27)
72 195N 1083W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14)
96 210N 1115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 22(33) 3(36)
96 210N 1115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12)
96 210N 1115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
120 215N 1150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14)
120 215N 1150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
120 215N 1150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 75 85 95 105 100 85 65
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
NNNN
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