Hurricane JOHN
ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
0300 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4
NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90
KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 18(28) 13(41) 2(43) X(43)
P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11)
P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 64 29(93) 2(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 7 46(53) 4(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 1 29(30) 4(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 69 25(94) 2(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 11 49(60) 4(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 3 32(35) 4(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
LA PAZ 34 7 65(72) 12(84) 3(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88)
LA PAZ 50 X 27(27) 16(43) 2(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46)
LA PAZ 64 X 11(11) 9(20) 1(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22)
LORETO 34 1 5( 6) 22(28) 11(39) 5(44) X(44) 1(45)
LORETO 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10)
LORETO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10)
GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13)
HUATABAMPO 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 4(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17)
LOS MOCHIS 34 1 10(11) 8(19) 3(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24)
LOS MOCHIS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CULICAN 34 4 30(34) 7(41) 3(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46)
CULICAN 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CULICAN 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MAZATLAN 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
SAN BLAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 224N 1089W 34 97 1(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 224N 1089W 50 62 12(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75)
12 224N 1089W 64 33 15(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
24 234N 1103W 34 27 60(87) 6(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
24 234N 1103W 50 1 44(45) 10(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
24 234N 1103W 64 X 23(23) 9(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
36 242N 1117W 34 1 40(41) 30(71) 8(79) 3(82) X(82) X(82)
36 242N 1117W 50 X 9( 9) 24(33) 7(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42)
36 242N 1117W 64 X 3( 3) 15(18) 4(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23)
48 248N 1132W 34 X 7( 7) 29(36) 21(57) 10(67) 1(68) X(68)
48 248N 1132W 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 14(26) 7(33) X(33) X(33)
48 248N 1132W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16)
72 255N 1160W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 21(39) 5(44) 1(45)
72 255N 1160W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) X(15)
72 255N 1160W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
96 260N 1190W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 7(18) 2(20)
96 260N 1190W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
96 260N 1190W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 260N 1240W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5)
120 260N 1240W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
120 260N 1240W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 95 90 90 85 65 50 40
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
NNNN
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