Tropical Storm KRISTY

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TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006
 
A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0210Z CONFIRMED THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
INTENSITY OF 40 KT AND THAT THE 34-KT WINDS IN THIS SMALL CYCLONE
EXTEND ONLY ABOUT 40 NM FROM THE CENTER.  NOT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION
WAS PRESENT AT THAT TIME...BUT A BURST HAS SINCE RESUMED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.  KRISTY REMAINS UNDER EASTERLY SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE JOHN.  THE INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 40 KT FOR NOW...BUT THE EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO
STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST.  THE SHEAR WOULD SEEM TO BE ENOUGH TO
REDUCE KRISTY TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AND A REMNANT LOW IN LESS
THAN 48 HOURS.

KRISTY HAD BEEN LIMPING WESTWARD AT A COUPLE OF KNOTS...BUT DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS IT APPEARS TO HAVE PULLED UP STATIONARY. 
STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...AND OVERALL THE CYCLONE WILL
PROBABLY NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  FOR THOSE
INTERESTED IN THE DETAILS...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ANTICIPATE
A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR
SO...SEEMINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE JOHN LOCATED ABOUT
600 NM TO THE NORTHEAST.  ONCE JOHN GAINS ENOUGH LATITUDE...SOME
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING MIGHT BUILD BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF KRISTY...AND
MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW KRISTY AGAIN MOVING WESTWARD IN ABOUT THREE
DAYS.  SINCE JOHN AND KRISTY WILL PROBABLY NOT GET ANY CLOSER
TOGETHER THAN THEY ARE NOW...I AM UNCONVINCED THAT KRISTY WILL BE
DRAWN AS FAR EASTWARD AS THE MODELS SUGGEST.  HOWEVER...THE NEW
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DOES SHOW A SMALL U-TURN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AN INSIGNIFICANT EASTWARD MOTION UNTIL THE
EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW DISSIPATES.  THE OFFICIAL 72 HOUR POSITION IS
COINCIDENTALLY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE GFDL...BUT WITHOUT THE
BACK AND FORTH MOTION BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0900Z 19.0N 119.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 18.9N 119.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 18.7N 119.0W    25 KT
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 18.6N 118.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     04/0600Z 18.5N 118.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     05/0600Z 18.5N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
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