Tropical Storm MIRIAM

ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142006               
0900 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ISLA CLARION   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 197N 1137W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 197N 1137W 50  4   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 12 197N 1137W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 205N 1135W 34 31  20(51)   4(55)   1(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
 24 205N 1135W 50  2   5( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 24 205N 1135W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 215N 1137W 34  7  15(22)   9(31)   3(34)   2(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 36 215N 1137W 50  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 36 215N 1137W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 224N 1143W 34  1   6( 7)   8(15)   5(20)   3(23)   1(24)   X(24)
 48 224N 1143W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 48 224N 1143W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 240N 1155W 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 72 240N 1155W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 72 240N 1155W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 250N 1160W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
 96 250N 1160W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 96 250N 1160W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     40      35      30      25      20       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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