Tropical Storm SERGIO

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TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006
0900 UTC FRI NOV 17 2006
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF SERGIO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 102.8W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 45NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 102.8W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 102.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.6N 103.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.2N 103.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.9N 104.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.7N 105.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.0N 107.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 19.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 21.0N 112.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 102.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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