Tropical Storm DEAN

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TROPICAL STORM DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
2100 UTC WED AUG 15 2007
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.  INTERESTS IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  47.9W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  19 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE  50SE  50SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  47.9W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N  47.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.5N  50.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.1N  54.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.6N  58.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.1N  62.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.0N  69.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 17.0N  76.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 18.5N  83.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N  47.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
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