Hurricane DEAN

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HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
0300 UTC FRI AUG 17 2007
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE...
DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE VERY NEAR COMPLETION.
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... MONSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
AT 1100 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N  58.7W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  22 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   5SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  25SE  10SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE  75SE  40SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE  60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N  58.7W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N  57.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.5N  61.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   5SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  25SE  10SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  75SE  40SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.1N  65.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE  75SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.7N  69.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE  75SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.4N  72.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  50SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE  80SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.0N  80.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  50SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE  80SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N  86.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.0N  92.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N  58.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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