Tropical Storm KAREN
ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
2100 UTC FRI SEP 28 2007
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 171N 509W 34 48 8(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) 1(57)
12 171N 509W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
12 171N 509W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 182N 524W 34 4 21(25) 7(32) 2(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35)
24 182N 524W 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
24 182N 524W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
36 192N 537W 34 X 7( 7) 13(20) 6(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28)
36 192N 537W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
36 192N 537W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
48 203N 550W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) 6(23) 1(24) X(24)
48 203N 550W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
48 203N 550W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
72 225N 575W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) 2(18)
72 225N 575W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
72 225N 575W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
96 240N 595W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 2(15)
96 240N 595W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
96 240N 595W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
120 255N 615W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10)
120 255N 615W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
120 255N 615W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 30 30 30 30 30 30
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
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