Hurricane NOEL
ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
0900 UTC FRI NOV 02 2007
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4
NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS
...80 MPH...130 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) X(30) X(30)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 43(49) X(49) X(49)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12)
BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 50(62) X(62) X(62)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) X(24)
PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 42(42) 27(69) X(69) X(69)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 19(28) X(28) X(28)
EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 26(26) 37(63) X(63) X(63)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) X(23) X(23)
SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 30(30) 13(43) X(43) X(43)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 63(66) 12(78) X(78) X(78)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 29(29) 13(42) X(42) X(42)
HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 13(13) 60(73) 4(77) X(77) X(77)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 4(42) X(42) X(42)
YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) 22(70) X(70) X(70)
MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 17(35) X(35) X(35)
MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 51(54) 12(66) X(66) X(66)
ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 10(31) X(31) X(31)
ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 45(50) 6(56) X(56) X(56)
EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 6(23) X(23) X(23)
EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 31(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41)
BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
BAR HARBOR ME 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26)
AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 15(15) 8(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 32(32) 11(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 42(42) 9(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 19(19) 5(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
DOVER DE 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NORFOLK VA 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 3 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
WILMINGTON NC 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 312N 736W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 312N 736W 50 79 5(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
12 312N 736W 64 29 7(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
24 354N 712W 34 5 85(90) 3(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
24 354N 712W 50 X 51(51) 10(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
24 354N 712W 64 X 17(17) 6(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
36 400N 687W 34 X 4( 4) 74(78) 7(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86)
36 400N 687W 50 X X( X) 40(40) 12(52) X(52) X(52) X(52)
36 400N 687W 64 X X( X) 16(16) 7(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
48 449N 650W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 61(65) 12(77) X(77) X(77)
48 449N 650W 50 X X( X) X( X) 30(30) 12(42) X(42) X(42)
48 449N 650W 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16)
72 560N 565W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 8(47) X(47)
72 560N 565W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 4(19) X(19)
72 560N 565W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
96 645N 500W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) X(21)
96 645N 500W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6)
96 645N 500W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70 70 75 75 65 40 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
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