Tropical Storm BERTHA

ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008               
0300 UTC MON JUL 07 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       1       2       3
TROP DEPRESSION  X       1       2       3       4       6       9
TROPICAL STORM  63      26      33      38      37      35      37
HURRICANE       37      73      66      59      58      57      52
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       35      59      48      39      35      33      29
HUR CAT 2        1      11      13      14      13      13      13
HUR CAT 3        X       2       3       5       7       8       8
HUR CAT 4        1       1       1       2       2       2       2
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   60KT    70KT    70KT    70KT    70KT    70KT    70KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  11(21)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
PONCE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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